Logistics News (Nov 22-28): Capacity Squeeze & Maersk Penalty
Author: Guanwutong Published Date: November 28, 2025
Introduction:
As we close out November, the global logistics market is defying the traditional “post-Thanksgiving cool down.” Instead, we are witnessing a structural tightening of capacity that extends far beyond standard seasonal fluctuations.
For supply chain managers, the current environment presents a dual challenge: Short-term cost spikes in the Intra-Asia lane and long-term strategic hurdles involving weight restrictions and the permanent redirection of trade routes.
At GWT Shipping, we believe that in a volatile market, information is your most valuable asset. Below is our deep-dive analysis of this week’s critical developments and our strategic recommendations for navigating them.
1. The Intra-Asia "Capacity Crisis": Why Rates Are Defying Gravity
The News:
While global attention often focuses on Trans-Pacific routes, the Intra-Asia trade lane is currently experiencing its most significant squeeze in months.
According to the Journal of Commerce, tight capacity is keeping freight rates aloft through January, driven largely by manufacturers frontloading shipments ahead of potential new US-China reciprocal tariffs (Source: JOC).
Simultaneously, logistics integrators are rushing to plug the gap. FedEx has launched new flights to expand its Intra-Asia network (Source: Asia Cargo News), and DHL Global Forwarding is aggressively scaling its Container Freight Station (CFS) network in Vietnam to handle LCL overflow (Source: Asia Cargo News).
GWT Expert Analysis:
Why is this happening now? It is not just the holiday rush. It is the “China Plus One” ripple effect.
As production shifts to Vietnam and Thailand, raw materials and components must move from China to these factories. This has created a massive surge in demand for short-sea shipping.
However, ocean carriers have moved their larger vessels to the lucrative Europe/US lanes to capitalize on Red Sea diversions, leaving the Intra-Asia route serviced by smaller, overbooked vessels.
What We Can Do:
Buffer Our Lead Time: The “3-day transit” from Shenzhen to Ho Chi Minh is now operationally a 7-10 day transit due to port congestion and rolling.
Switch to Multimodal: For urgent components, consider GWT’s Cross-Border Trucking solution to Vietnam/Thailand. It is faster than sea freight and significantly cheaper than the currently spiked air freight rates.
2. The War on Weight: Maersk’s New $400 Surcharge
The News:
In a move that signals a shift in carrier yield management, Maersk has announced a flat Heavy Weight Surcharge (HWS) of US$400 for 20ft containers exceeding 20 tons (VGM). This currently applies to exports from Far East Asia to the Mediterranean starting December 7th (Source: The Loadstar).
GWT Expert Analysis:
This is a critical signal. For years, shippers of heavy, low-value goods (like stone, metals, and industrial machinery) enjoyed the same slot rates as light cargo.
Carriers are now realizing that heavy containers consume more fuel and limit the total number of empties they can stack on board.
Maersk is essentially reclassifying heavy cargo as “premium” cargo. We expect other carriers (MSC, CMA CGM) to watch this closely and potentially follow suit if Maersk succeeds in retaining revenue.
What We Can Do:
Audit Your VGM: If your cargo typically weighs 21-24 tons, you are now in the “penalty zone.”
Carrier Arbitrage: Not all carriers penalize weight equally. GWT Shipping maintains contracts with “heavy-friendly” carriers like COSCO and EMC. Contact us before booking heavy loads; we can often route you to a carrier where this surcharge does not apply, saving you $400 instantly.
3. The "New Normal" for 2026: Red Sea & Overcapacity
The News:
Dispelling market rumors, Maersk officially confirmed this week that there is “no specific timing” for a return to the Red Sea, citing crew safety as non-negotiable (Source: FreightWaves).
Conversely, analysts warn that the massive influx of new vessel deliveries could make overcapacity “unavoidable” in 2026, potentially crashing rates once the Red Sea eventually reopens (Source: The Loadstar).
GWT Expert Analysis:
We are in a paradoxical market: Short-term shortage, long-term glut.
The continued diversion around Africa absorbs about 10-15% of the global fleet. This is the only thing keeping rates high right now.
However, European ports are already struggling; reports indicate they lack the buffer space to handle the “vessel bunching” caused by off-schedule arrivals (Source: JOC).
What We Can Do:
Inventory Planning: Do not plan your Q1/Q2 2026 inventory based on a Suez Canal reopening. Keep your safety stock levels elevated by 10-14 days.
Contract Negotiation: Be wary of locking in long-term fixed rates at today’s levels. If the Red Sea opens or demand softens, the spot market in late 2026 could be significantly lower. GWT advises a mixed strategy: lock 50% on contract, keep 50% on spot.
4. Air Freight: Asia Remains the Global Engine
The News:
While the airfreight “mini peak” into the US is showing signs of fading post-Thanksgiving, Asia’s export market remains remarkably strong.
Despite global economic headwinds, Asian air cargo volumes are bucking the downward trend (Source: The Loadstar).
GWT Expert Analysis:
This resilience is driven by high-tech exports (semiconductors, AI hardware) and the relentless growth of cross-border e-commerce (Shein, Temu, TikTok Shop).
E-commerce giants are swallowing up air capacity out of South China, keeping the “floor” price for air freight higher than historical averages.
What We Can Do:
If you are shipping general cargo out of Shenzhen (SZX) or Guangzhou (CAN), you are competing with e-commerce for space.
GWT recommends booking “Block Space” agreements or utilizing alternative hubs like Hong Kong (HKG) or Xiamen to avoid the e-commerce congestion and secure better rates.
Partner with GWT Shipping
The logistics market in late 2025 is defined by nuance. It’s not just “rates are up.” It’s “rates are up for Vietnam but stable for LA.” It’s not just “booking a container.” It’s “booking a container that won’t be hit with a $400 weight penalty.”
At GWT Shipping, we don’t just move boxes; we analyze these trends daily to protect your margins. We act as your Logistics Control Tower in China, helping you navigate surcharges, congestion, and compliance shifts before they become problems.
Why GWT Shipping?
Regional Expertise: Deeply rooted in Shenzhen, we have strong networks across China, Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia. We know the best routes for your specific cargo.
Compliance First: As an AEO and WCA certified forwarder, we ensure your data meets the new, stricter CBP requirements, preventing costly delays.
The “Tough Stuff” Specialists: Whether it is high-tech electronics, batteries (DG cargo), or urgent project cargo, we handle the packaging and paperwork that others refuse.
Disclaimer: This article aggregates publicly available industry news from reputable sources and provides GWT Shipping’s independent analysis for informational purposes only. All intellectual property rights to the original news content belong to their respective publishers. Links to original sources are provided for reference.
Founded in 2004, Shenzhen Guanwutong International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. (GWT) is a WCA- and AEO-certified global logistics provider offering end-to-end air, ocean, rail, express, and DDP solutions.
With bonded warehouses in Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Fuzhou, plus 24/7 customs brokerage and real-time tracking, we deliver reliable, compliant, and tailored freight services to 3000+ clients across 190+ countries.
Stop worrying about the logistics bottlenecks.
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